BloombergNEF counts 181GW of gas planned for data centres

Developers have announced 181 gigawatts of gas-fired power alongside data centres, more than 90 per cent of it in the United States, according to BloombergNEF. The research firm’s report, published on 11 November and commissioned by Bloomberg Philanthropies, expects data centre electricity demand to almost quadruple to 2,354 terawatt-hours by 2035, about 7 per cent of global consumption.

The immediate constraint is connection. BNEF finds that grids in the US and Europe are slow to connect large new loads, while the financial reward for switching on early pushes some developers to build their own gas plant while they wait.

The 181 gigawatts counts announcements, and the emissions estimate assumes every US project is built and run. On that basis BNEF puts their output at about 345 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent a year, 152 million tonnes more than running the same data centres on the average US grid mix. The firm also warns of lock-in, meaning that a plant built to cover a wait for the grid keeps running after the connection arrives.

The picture differs by country. Where grids lean heavily on coal, BNEF finds a grid-connected data centre can be worse for emissions than one running on its own gas. In Brazil, new demand could absorb renewable power that is currently curtailed. In the US and Europe, the firm’s answer is faster grid connection.

That places much of the climate outcome of the AI build-out in connection queues and grid rules, which governments control. The number to watch is how much of the 181 gigawatts reaches a permit and financing.

Sources: BloombergNEF.