Silver Fox: China places 63 malware suspects under criminal compulsory measuresPart 2 of 2

China's Ministry of Public Security says it has put 63 people under criminal compulsory measures in five malware cases. Security vendors track Silver Fox as a threat actor that deploys ValleyRAT, but the ministry's announcement does not establish that the suspects belonged to that group. No charges, trials or sentences have been reported. Part 2 of the Hackers vs the state series asks whether Beijing is punishing the crime or the victim list.

Essay5 min read

VasyGrek arrests: how Russia polices its own hackersPart 1 of 2

The VasyGrek case fits a pattern in which the line Russia draws around cybercrime runs through the victim, not the crime. A rare arrest of a group that hit Russian firms shows where tolerance may end, and how little the public record says about why the state acted now.

Essay6 min read

Maven's AI agents: who is accountable when they fail?Part 3 of 3

Anthropic told courts it cannot alter Claude once it is inside a classified Pentagon system, and an appeals court has now ruled that how a laboratory trains its models can itself be a supply chain risk. Military AI splits responsibility between the laboratory that trains the model, the platform that gives it tools and the commander who acts, and no single party holds the whole of it.

Essay5 min read

The Camorra has gone digital. So has the state.

In Naples, organised crime uses drones, encrypted phones, online betting and social media to extend its reach. Italian investigators are responding with intercepted communications, financial intelligence and AI. The technology changes the contest, but neither side has escaped the old rules of power, money and intimidation.

Essay5 min read

Yandex strikes: did they cut Russian disinformation?

After Ukrainian drones hit three Yandex data centres, officials and commentators said Russian disinformation had fallen in Ukraine, Europe, the US and the UK. The evidence published so far does not support that, and the traffic chart behind the claim measured something else.

Essay5 min read

Cockroach Janta Party: built online, tracked offline

The Cockroach Janta Party reached 22 million Instagram followers in about two weeks, then saw Delhi Police seal its protest site and detain its founders after tracking them for days, according to police officers. The platforms that made the movement cheap to build also made it visible, and the government can order those platforms to restrict access in ways the movement cannot.

Essay9 min read

The AI election has no control group

American campaigns have adopted generative AI faster than almost any tool in modern politics. Laboratory experiments show it can persuade attentive voters, while decades of field research suggest that campaign contact rarely produces measurable changes in candidate choice. The midterms will be read as a verdict on AI, though they were not designed to deliver one.

Essay6 min read

A crime gang with a grievance

ShinyHunters says it hacked the FBI's recruitment systems in retaliation for a public warning, and wants the warning withdrawn. The group is still best described as criminal. What that word cannot capture is how much a loose, arrest-resistant network can now do to a state institution.

Analysis7 min read

Who holds the brake?

The heads of OpenAI and Anthropic now say AI is moving too fast. Whether they mean it matters less than the question this summer's incidents have raised: when the danger is visible mainly to the builders, who gets to stop the machine?

Essay8 min read

AI is turning electricity into ammunition

The American military's appetite for fuel is famous enough to travel as a statistic without its footnotes. The more consequential change is quieter. Drones, sensors and battlefield AI have opened a second supply line, one measured in batteries, generators and watts, and the industrial base that would sustain it sits largely in China.

Essay6 min read

The extinction argument now runs on incident reports

A pretraining researcher resigned from Anthropic this week and accused his employer and OpenAI of gambling with our lives. The part of his case that cannot be tested has taken the headlines. The part that can be tested is a set of cyber security incidents, and they describe a containment problem that is already here.

Essay10 min read

Who gets to say what the machines did

Anthropic has published the most detailed public account yet of how artificial intelligence is being used for espionage, propaganda and fraud. It found the activity in its own systems, named the actors, imposed the penalty and released the evidence. The question is what happens when a record like this can only be assembled by the company whose product generated the telemetry.

Essay8 min read

A marketing technique goes to warPart 2 of 2

A sanctioned Russian operation optimised its websites for machines rather than people. Five major AI models cited it. The techniques were borrowed wholesale from the marketing industry, and the proposed defence is that democracies borrow them too.

Essay6 min read

Written for the machinesPart 1 of 2

Generative engine optimisation is a legal, well-capitalised industry that sells influence over what AI systems tell you. The academic evidence says the techniques work. Fraudsters and blue-chip PR firms worked that out before most marketers did.

Essay6 min read

Washington wants to win the AI race. Rome says the race is the problem.

American AI policy begins from the premise that there is a race with China and that America must win it. Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical begins from the premise that treating AI as a race is itself the danger. Peter Thiel thinks that makes the pope an ally of Beijing. Underneath the row sits a question neither side can avoid: who gets a say in what these machines are for?

Essay9 min read

The balance sheet is strategic infrastructurePart 5 of 5

American technology companies will spend around three quarters of a trillion dollars this year on infrastructure they are no longer financing entirely from their own cash flow. What fills the gap is a financial system, and the question of which country has the better one has quietly become a question about which country gets the future it is paying for.

Essay7 min read

Abu Dhabi discovered another kind of powerPart 4 of 5

In 2006 an Emirati company was forced out of American port terminals by a congressional revolt. Twenty years later two Abu Dhabi firms have been granted licence-free access to the most controlled technology the United States produces, on condition that they become American companies within a year. Something changed, and it was not only the money.

Essay6 min read

Europe has money. It needs factories.Part 3 of 5

A Munich startup is about to begin building three thousand interceptor drones a month, having raised roughly forty-six million euros in venture capital. What makes a production line at that scale financeable is the expectation that somebody will buy what comes off it, and Europe has spent a year learning how to manufacture that expectation.

Essay7 min read

Nobody wants to own the chipsPart 1 of 5

Alphabet has written $43.8 billion of backstops on data centres it does not own, against which it carries a fair-value liability of $815 million. Nvidia has just answered with $500 billion of financing platforms of its own. The AI contest is still reported as a race between models and chips. The more consequential competition is now over who can supply the cheapest credit, and where the risk settles once the arranging is finished.

Essay · Infrastructure8 min read

Who can afford to lose money on AIPart 2 of 5

The gap between what frontier AI earns and what is being spent to make it possible is enormous, and it is usually reported using the most flattering measure available. Read it with the right numbers and the interesting question is no longer whether AI is a bubble. It is that one lab has just shown the revenue can arrive, and that the structures built while everyone waited for it will outlast the waiting.

Essay8 min read

Detection got cheap. Jurisdiction did not.

In January a Chinese-owned fishing vessel spent ninety minutes inside Argentina's waters. Nobody boarded it. Argentina fined it anyway, largely on the strength of its electronic track. The case shows how far maritime surveillance has come, and where its limits now lie.

Essay8 min read

Why geothermal power still begins with a very expensive hole

In Lanzarote, the residual heat of an eighteenth-century eruption cooks lunch for tourists. A few hundred kilometres west, an Icelandic-led consortium has begun drilling beneath Tenerife to find out whether the same kind of heat can carry an island's electricity system — with roughly half the exploration bill paid by the public.

Essay15 min read

What actually links data centres to the wildfires

As France carries out what its interior minister calls the country's largest peacetime evacuation, and Spain fights its biggest recorded fire, the AI buildout is being blamed for fires it did not start. There is a more serious question underneath, and it concerns the electricity grid rather than the water main.

Essay8 min read

The models that hacked their way out of the test

OpenAI says two of its models, tested with their cyber safeguards switched off, found a way out of an isolated lab and broke into Hugging Face to steal the answers to a benchmark. It may be the first publicly documented breach carried out from start to finish by an autonomous AI agent — and the way it was caught is as instructive as the break-in.

Essay5 min read

An eighteenth-century constitution in a machine age

The American Bill of Rights was written for a world of muskets, town squares and letters kept in a locked drawer. Two and a half centuries of invention have moved much of private life and public speech into places the framers never pictured. The question is whether the amendments have lost their grip on modern life, or whether their broad wording is exactly what allows them to keep up.

Essay7 min read

The cloud has coordinates

For twenty years the cloud sold itself as placeless — an abstraction you rented by the hour. Then Iranian drones hit three Amazon datacenters in the Gulf, and the world's most important metaphor acquired a street address.

Essay · Infrastructure6 min read

The coalition is the network

The MAGA online ecosystem is usually described as a media empire. It is better understood as a merger of three trust networks — partisan media, charismatic Christianity, and armed fraternity — and its resilience comes from that redundancy. What happens when the legal deterrent aimed at one of those networks is switched off?

Essay7 min read

Compute as currency

Chips, models and cloud capacity are no longer ordinary exports but instruments of statecraft—granted to allies, withheld from rivals, traded for investment and alignment. Three developments in recent weeks suggest the transactional era has arrived; the harder question is how long such leverage survives being used.

Essay · Geopolitics4 min read

The Tightrope: India's Year of Hedging Everyone

In six months India bought record Russian oil, signed a landmark trade deal with Europe, thawed with China, and quietly defied Washington. Is multi-alignment a strategy — or a stress position?

Essay · Geopolitics9 min read